While the most likely track keeps Erin offshore from the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda, shifts in the storm’s path could bring strong winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding to parts of the eastern United States.

Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane and cruise the waters between Bermuda and the United States next week. Even if a direct hit does not occur in the U.S., seas and surf will pose serious threats to coastal areas.

Erin will begin to strengthen before and while passing just to the north of the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean late this week and this weekend.

“Environmental conditions north and northeast of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean will be very favorable for intensification and, as a result, Erin is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

How quickly a turn to the north occurs later this weekend to early next week will determine Erin’s proximity to the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.

“Interests along the East Coast of the United States, the Bahamas and in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin, as a shift in the track could bring direct impacts to these areas,” DaSilva said.

The concern includes residents and visitors in these areas, cruise lines and shipping and fishing ventures that could cross paths with a powerful hurricane.

However, there is the possibility that an area of high pressure, known as the Bermuda high, will extend well to the west. This, paired with a cold front and a dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S., could also allow Erin to track significantly farther to the west.

This farther west scenario would mean a greater risk of strong winds, rain and coastal flooding to areas of land in the U.S. that extend out into the ocean–such as eastern North Carolina, Long Island, New York and southeastern New England.

(Info provided by AccuWeather.)